Model Performance Metrics

📊 Institutional Performance Dataset (Public View)

MP Model (Vancomycin): 268 fits, generated 2026-07-21 14:22 UTC by marshall.
Two-Compartment Models: 260 fits, generated 2026-07-21 14:23 UTC.

This page displays key performance metrics from institutional pharmacokinetic modeling datasets.

Two-Compartment Model Performance

MP Model — Goti Goodness of Fit (260 patients, 346 fits)
% Converged
100.0%
Converged / Non
346 / 0
SS / level
6.150 (SD 8.415)
Pop pred MPE %
78.00 (SD 78.48)
Pop pred MAPE %
82.88 (SD 73.40)
Pop pred RMSE (mg/L)
9.050 (SD 5.713)
Pop pred NRMSE (%)
74.9 (SD 61.1)
1-Compartment (Matzke-Pai) goodness of fit — same patient cohort (N = 364 fits)

Identical metrics computed across all 1-compartment fittings for comparison with the Goti 2-compartment results above.

% Converged
100.0%
Converged / Non
364 / 0
SS / level
1.506 (SD 4.499)
Pop pred MPE %
27.81 (SD 57.89)
Pop pred MAPE %
45.29 (SD 45.67)
Pop pred RMSE (mg/L)
5.006 (SD 4.312)
Pop pred NRMSE (%)
41.4 (SD 40.6)
MP Model — Carreno Goodness of Fit (260 patients, 346 fits)
% Converged
100.0%
Converged / Non
346 / 0
SS / level
4.593 (SD 9.244)
Pop pred MPE %
92.36 (SD 82.41)
Pop pred MAPE %
95.77 (SD 78.49)
Pop pred RMSE (mg/L)
10.670 (SD 6.394)
Pop pred NRMSE (%)
86.7 (SD 65.4)
1-Compartment (Matzke-Pai) goodness of fit — same patient cohort (N = 364 fits)

Identical metrics computed across all 1-compartment fittings for comparison with the Carreno 2-compartment results above.

% Converged
100.0%
Converged / Non
364 / 0
SS / level
1.506 (SD 4.499)
Pop pred MPE %
27.81 (SD 57.89)
Pop pred MAPE %
45.29 (SD 45.67)
Pop pred RMSE (mg/L)
5.006 (SD 4.312)
Pop pred NRMSE (%)
41.4 (SD 40.6)

MP Model Performance — Vancomycin

MP Model — Patient Demographics — Vancomycin

N = 260    % Male = 55.0% (n = 260 with sex recorded)

Variable Mean SD Median Range N
Age (yr) 66.1 16.6 67.5 22.0 – 99.0 260
Height (in) 67.2 4.4 67.0 56.0 – 77.0 260
Weight (kg) 84.0 29.2 78.5 31.3 – 211.0 260
BSA (Meters Squared) 1.9 0.3 1.9 1.2 – 3.0 260
CrCl (mL/min) 64.5 34.8 58.3 7.9 – 216.2 260

Demographics from each patient's most recent Vancomycin fitting snapshot.

MP Model — Vancomycin — Creatinine Clearance Breakdown (mL/min/1.73 m²)

N = 260    Mean = 57.0 mL/min/1.73 m²  (SD 29.0, range 7.9–183.3)

Stage Category CrCl Range (mL/min/1.73 m²) N %
G1 Normal / High ≥ 90 29 11.2%
G2 Mildly Decreased 60–89 84 32.3%
G3a Mildly–Moderately Decreased 45–59 49 18.8%
G3b Moderately–Severely Decreased 30–44 47 18.1%
G4 Severely Decreased 15–29 43 16.5%
G5 Kidney Failure < 15 8 3.1%

Normalised CrCl = CrCl × 1.73 / BSA, using the fitting-time snapshot values.

MP Model — Vancomycin — BMI Breakdown

N = 260    Mean BMI = 28.6  (SD 8.8, range 11.8–68.6)

Category BMI Range N %
Underweight < 18.5 19 7.3%
Normal 18.5–24.9 76 29.2%
Overweight 25–29.9 74 28.5%
Obese 30–<40 67 25.8%
Morbid Obesity ≥ 40 24 9.2%

BMI computed from pt_weight / (pt_height × 0.0254)² using the fitting-time snapshot.

MP Model — Vancomycin — Fitted PK Parameter Group Distribution Vs Population Prior (all fittings)
Parameter Fitted (individual) Population
MeanSDMedianRangeN MeanSDRange
Vd (L) 51.395 19.764 47.783 8.310 – 117.301 346 54.686 19.004 20.350 – 137.150
Vd (L/kg) 0.609 0.105 0.628 0.238 – 1.176 346 0.650 0.000 0.650 – 0.650
Cl (L/hr) 3.9660 2.2853 3.3468 0.3801 – 10.5249 346 3.6612 2.0222 0.3146 – 10.7593
Ke (hr⁻¹) 0.0822 0.0475 0.0728 0.0091 – 0.2923 346 0.0666 0.0299 0.0088 – 0.2013
(hr) 12.18 9.27 9.52 2.37 – 76.31 346 13.16 7.97 3.40 – 78.70
Model Fit Bias — Fitted vs. Population Prior
Parameter MPE% MAPE% RMSE rRMSE% N
Vd (L) 10.4% 14.3% 8.93 26.0% 346
Vd (L/kg) 10.4% 14.3% 0.113 26.0% 346
Cl (L/hr) -3.4% 19.9% 1.0679 28.7% 346
Ke (hr⁻¹) -8.0% 27.7% 0.03710 36.9% 346
T½ (hr) 23.7% 36.2% 5.22 51.4% 346

MPE% (Mean Prediction Error): 1/n ∑[(Population − Fitted) / Fitted × 100%] — positive = population overpredicts individual fit; negative = population underpredicts; near zero = well-calibrated model. MAPE% (Mean Absolute Prediction Error): average magnitude of deviation regardless of direction — lower is better. RMSE (Root Mean Square Error): in the parameter's native units (L, L/hr, hr⁻¹, hr) — measures absolute spread of individual fits around the population prior. rRMSE% (Relative RMSE): RMSE normalised by the fitted value × 100% — scale-independent. MPE%: <20%: best   ≤30%: acceptable   >30%: caution — MAPE%: <30%: best   ≤50%: acceptable   >50%: caution — rRMSE%: <50%: best   ≤70%: acceptable   >70%: caution.

MP Model — Body-Size Diagnostics — Vancomycin (MP Model)

Per-fit individual (post-Bayesian fit) prediction error regressed against patient weight and BMI. N = 346 fits.

Fit (individual) prediction error stratified by BMI category
BMI category N fits Mean MPE % Mean MAPE % Mean RMSE (mg/L)
Underweight (<18.5) 28 2.70 4.41 0.675
Normal (18.5–24.9) 96 -0.49 4.29 0.784
Overweight (25.0–29.9) 96 0.75 2.64 0.388
Obese (30.0–39.9) 94 0.54 3.05 0.487
Morbid (≥40) 32 0.14 2.29 0.397
MP Model — Renal-Function Diagnostics — Vancomycin (Fit MPE % vs CrCl per 1.73 m²)

Per-fit individual (post-Bayesian fit) prediction error regressed against BSA-normalised CrCl (mL/min/1.73 m²). N = 346 fits.

Fit (individual) prediction error stratified by KDIGO CKD stage
CKD stage N fits Mean MPE % Mean MAPE % Mean RMSE (mg/L)
G1 — Normal (≥90) 38 0.45 3.53 0.611
G2 — Mildly Decreased (60–89) 116 0.65 2.75 0.411
G3a — Mild–Moderate (45–59) 67 0.90 3.20 0.471
G3b — Moderate–Severe (30–44) 61 0.42 2.91 0.448
G4 — Severely Decreased (15–29) 55 -1.43 4.27 0.826
G5 — Kidney Failure (<15) 9 6.12 7.71 1.638
MP Model — Bayesian Dosing Adjustment Accuracy — Predicted vs Achieved (Next Fitting)

Pairs a saved dosing recommendation (Predicted) with the fitted peak/trough/AUC₂₄ computed at the patient's next fitting (Achieved). Dose Match indicates both the recommended dose (within 1 mg) and dosing interval (within 0.1 hr) matched the active regimen at the next fitting.

Group Summary (dose-matched pairs only)
Parameter N Pairs MPE% MAPE% RMSE rRMSE% Mean Achieved (95% CI)
Peak (mg/L) 91 6.9% 13.3% 6.96 21.4% 35.30
(31.37 to 39.23)
Trough (mg/L) 91 6.2% 18.3% 5.08 29.6% 16.01
(12.54 to 19.48)
AUC₂₄ (mg·h/L) 91 5.7% 13.5% 130.2 19.6% 578.7
(489.9 to 667.6)